News from Asia suggests cars are going the way of horse-drawn carriages. Toyota, the world's biggest auto manufacturer by sales, plans to shut production at all its Japanese plants over 11 days in February and March. Korea's Hyundai is so desperate to rack up US sales it has promised to take cars back if the buyer becomes unemployed – a rather expensive option in current markets. General Motors, meantime, unveiled its slowest growth rate in China in at least six years last year, further evidence that the world's second biggest car market is slamming on the brakes. Chinese passenger car sales fell 12 per cent year-on-year in November.
Japanese and Korean carmakers are partly responding to US pain: Toyota's sales fell 37 per cent year-on-year in December in the US, while Hyundai Motor's sales almost halved. Japan, also in recession, is fallow ground too. Passenger car sales fell 3.3 per cent last year, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers' Association, which is predicting a 5 per cent fall this year. Some forecasters reckon sales in China could actually drop after registering a 7 per cent increase last year.
Carmakers, increasingly forced to rely on emerging markets, hope this will not come to pass. Optimism is boosted by China's fiscal stimulus and other administrative measures being mulled by the government. These include a reduction in purchase taxes, which now make up 10 per cent of the cost price. Bulls also point to cheaper petrol, which could encourage sales among more price-sensitive buyers. Even so, enthusiasm should be tempered. China's car industry is still in a glut, and prices will likely continue to fall this year for mid and larger-sized cars. Competition is strong, and – as in other markets – protectionist measures have their allure. Already Beijing is considering plans to oblige government bodies to buy fleets of cars made by Chinese companies. Never mind Detroit. It's grim out east too.
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來自亞洲的消息顯示，汽車正在步上馬車的后塵。全球銷量最大的汽車制造商豐田(Toyota)，計劃在2、3月份讓所有日本工廠停產(chǎn)11天。韓國的現(xiàn)代(Hyundai)如此迫切渴望提高美國市場銷量，以至于承諾若顧客失業(yè)，可將汽車退回——在當(dāng)前市場狀況下，這是一種代價頗為高昂的做法。與此同時，通用汽車(General Motors)透露，去年在中國市場取得的增幅是至少6年來最小的，進(jìn)一步證明全球第二大汽車市場正在“剎車”。去年11月，中國轎車銷量同比下降12%。
日本和韓國汽車制造商在一定程度上回應(yīng)了美國市場的不景氣：豐田去年12月在美國市場的銷量同比下降37%，而現(xiàn)代汽車的銷量幾乎減半。日本本身也處于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，市場也相當(dāng)?shù)兔浴８鶕?jù)日本汽車制造商協(xié)會(Japan Automobile Manufacturers' Association)的數(shù)據(jù)，去年日本轎車銷量下降3.3%，今年預(yù)計將下降5%。一些預(yù)測者推測，中國汽車銷量在去年增長7%之后，今年可能出現(xiàn)下降。
對日趨被迫依賴新興市場的汽車制造商來說，當(dāng)然希望這一預(yù)測不會成為現(xiàn)實。中國的財政刺激方案和政府正在醞釀的其它行政措施，增強(qiáng)了人們的樂觀情緒。這些措施包括削減汽車購置稅——目前該稅占汽車售價的10%。樂觀人士還指出，汽油價格的下降可能會鼓勵對價格比較敏感的買家下決心買車。即便如此，這些樂觀情緒也應(yīng)當(dāng)降溫。中國的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)仍處于供過于求的狀態(tài)，大中型汽車的價格今年可能繼續(xù)下跌。競爭相當(dāng)激烈，而且就像其它市場一樣，保護(hù)主義措施自有其吸引力。北京已在考慮相關(guān)計劃，要求政府機(jī)構(gòu)必須采購國產(chǎn)汽車。別管底特律。東方的景象也光明不到哪里去。
（轉(zhuǎn)載）
